RIMM, NBG and more SH

To practice what I preach is the way I like to invest. And that is exactly what I did by buying the above positions.

I bought RIMM because the price is entering a support area with a price range of 39 to 42. I could have waited for the price to get closer to 40, for another %10 decrease, but, with the earnings report only 2 days away, it seems that now is right time to strike.

As posted a day ago, the price forecasting illusion is telling me that RIMM will continue its downward spiral and that the support zone of 39 will not hold. However, from a probability perspective, I think that the probability of a price increase has gone higher at these levels. A bad Q2 earnings report and a bad Q3 forecast would probably result in in the price testing the resistance level of 39, for an 11% decrease. If on the other hand, the earnings report and forecast is better than expected, or not as bad as expected, then RIMM could rally to the 48 - 57 resistance level.

NBG follows a similar line of thought. I bought it at 2.36 after it announced a capital raise of 1.2B Euros. The price declined after the announcement, and it fell short of its 2.12 support price. Even after the capital raise, the stock is not decreasing past its support point. Is that a good sign? I don't know, but I think the probability of a higher price just improved.

And just in case all I am wrong in my analysis, I bought a little SH as a hedge. I did not hedge the entire RIMM and NBG position because lately these two stock have not been correlated to the market. But if the market were to take a sudden tumble, I want to protect myself at little bit. A hedged position is the only way I can sleep at night any more!