Three Months of Hindsight

Not having blogged for three months, here is the hindsight analysis.

AONE - down to $12.50. After repeated attempts to buy, I gave up on the stock.
PALM - bought with an average price of $4.90 and sold a week ago. Today I found out that it was being acquired by HP for $5.70. Only had 2K shares, so no serious regrets.
ZQK - this is a heart breaker story! Had 20K shares with an average price of $2.15 and sold all shares at $2.00. My $3K losses wiped out my previous gains on ZQK. Stock is trading at $5.75.
VLO - bought an additional 1,000 shares pre earnings, and after earnings report on Tuesday sold it for break even. Issue? Greek default fear sent market down 2.5%, and thought holding a large concentrated position would be too risky.
S - bought several times unsuccessfully, but decided to go long yesterday with and additonal 3,500 shares. After watching PALM being taken out, I can not stand on the side lines with S, even though yesterday I decided not to hold a large concentrated position on VLO. Logical? Well, for the same dollar value of of my 1,500 VLO now I hold 500 VLO and 2,000 S. I do admit that this was an emotional trade for me, but, with the M&A market picking up and S performance improving, I can see S reaching $8/share

In summary, analysis is not terrible, but the implementation of the strategy is horrible!

As for Greece, I hope it defaults on its debt. It's the only way it can balance its books again. It will be a painful process, but I think it is the best course of action for the European Union. This is no different than if California goes bankrupt. I will not be happy if the federal government bails out the state. Why should savers bail out the spenders? Moral hazard is real, and bailouts of insolvent companies, states or nations need to stop. Failure of weak institutions is the only way to police the financial system.

However, knowing that there is a small chance of a bailout, I will buy 1,000 NBG @ $3/share with a stop loss of of $1.50 to participate in the Greek bank rally that would follow a bailout. Worst case, lose $1,500.00+; best case make $3K if it rallies to $6/share.